Change in the winds

It is often observed that (fill in the blank with your designated amount of time) is "an eternity in politics." Certainly, as we look back over the first 3 months of 2008, we can attest to the truth of that adage.

On the GOP side, we have witnessed the improbable rise of Mike Huckabee and we have watched Mitt Romney give an impressive runner-up performance from single digits in the polls. We have been stupefied by the rapid decline of the perceived frontrunner for the Republican nod (Rudy Guliani) and ultimately, we have all been amazed by the resurrection of John McCain from the political graveyard.

Meanwhile, the Democratic field has yielded one major surprise in the nomination fight, which would be that it appears the crown really will go to someone whom no one had ever heard of when the last election year was underway in 2004. Add to that the inevitability aura that Hillary Clinton exuded (think her appearance with Katie Couric circa October of last year when she interrupted the perky Katie twice to declare, "No, it will be me"), and you must conclude, as historians will, that Obama will have scored a real upset when this is all said and done.

Yes, I hear what you're asking: So you do think, then, that Obama will be the Democrat nominee? People, let's keep it real; how can he not be, by this point? Hillary's numbers are falling in Pennsylvania, while Obama's rise. Obama will win North Carolina, and probably Indiana too, since it borders Illinois. The superdelegates are not going to jump over to Hillary's camp unless they want to completely blow the party to shreds. But even if Hillary ran the table by now, she can't pick up the delegates she needs to surpass Obama's count, nor will she win the popular vote. And something tells me she can't count on the residual affection of her fellow Democrat power brokers. Bill Richardson had the temerity to go on Fox News Sunday last week (Sunday, March 27) and declare that "it shouldn't be Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton; someone else deserves a chance!" This from a former Clinton Cabinet member, no less! Oh my.

Little things tend to accumulate into avalanches in politics. (That is my own little aphorism that I just coined; it may or may not be quoteworthy. Probably negative to that proposition.) If the prevailing trends continue, and you better believe that the Republicans will do their utmost to assure that they do, McCain will win this election. We have seen Obama struggle with the greatest crisis of his lifetime this month. As he was recovering from that, Hillary decided to tell a story about Bosnia. Yes, as a Republican, it has been gleeful to have a ringside seat and do my little bit to pile on. :) Through it all, McCain visited Iraq, handled a situation of his own with admirable alacrity and made major speeches (not necessarily in that chronological order). And his numbers are moving north. I think the most noteworthy pattern that bodes well for McCain is that Republicans are falling in line behind him. It will be even easier if Hillary and Obama fight all the way to Denver, which appears increasingly plausible.

So it could all change in a month...but that is the way things seem now, and I like it, I love it, I want some more of it!